Tensions in Ukraine: The West Is Skeptical of Russian Overtures

By Derrick Bangura

Russia made two overtures to counter tensions in the region, reporting a troop pullback near Ukraine and welcoming talks with the West. The US and its allies, on the other hand, said they needed proof of the troop movements and that the threat of a Russian invasion remained.

Conflict

After weeks of rising East-West tensions, Moscow massed over 150,000 troops on three edges of Ukraine and staged large military drills for the second day Tuesday, there were glimpses of hope that Europe would avert conflict. As a result of these actions, Washington, London, and other European capitals have issued dire warnings that Russia is ready to invade Ukraine.

This week, however, the tone has shifted. President Vladimir Putin stated on Tuesday that Russia does not desire conflict and will rely on negotiations to eliminate any possibility of Ukraine joining NATO in the future, which is his main objective in the situation. At the same time, he refused to commit to a complete retreat, stating that Russia’s next steps in the standoff would be determined by how the situation unfolded.

Russia also provided scant details about the retreat, and President Joe Biden stated that American authorities had not independently corroborated Russia’s claim. He promised that the United States would give diplomacy “every chance,” but he expressed reservations about Moscow’s intentions.

“There are still two paths available,” Biden remarked at the White House. “But make no mistake: If Russia violates international law by invading Ukraine, responsible nations all across the world will not hesitate to retaliate.” We will undoubtedly pay a higher price tomorrow if we do not stand up for freedom when it is threatened today.”

Throughout the crisis, Ukrainian leaders have tried to convey both calm and power. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared Wednesday a “day of national unity,” encouraging citizens to display the blue-and-yellow flag and sing the national song in the face of “hybrid dangers.”

Despite the rays of hope, Biden said 150,000 Russian troops are now stationed in Ukraine and in Belarus, up from a previous US estimate of 130,000 troops.

Russia’s claim that it pulled back troops “would be good, but we have not yet verified that,” Biden said. “Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position.”

Russia has denied having any invasion plans. It wants the West to keep Ukraine and other former Soviet nations out of NATO, halt weapons deployments near Russian borders and roll back forces from Eastern Europe.

The U.S. and its allies have roundly rejected those demands, but they offered to engage in talks with Russia on ways to bolster security in Europe.

Speaking after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin said the West agreed to discuss a ban on missile deployment to Europe, restrictions on military drills, and other confidence-building measures — issues that Moscow put on the table years ago.

He said Russia is open to discussing “some of those elements,” but added that it would do so only in combination “with the main issues that are of primary importance for us.”

While Scholz reiterated that NATO’s eastward expansion “is not on the agenda — everyone knows that very well,” Putin retorted that Moscow will not be assuaged by such assurances.

“They are telling us it won’t happen tomorrow,” Putin said. “Well, when will it happen? The day after tomorrow? What does it change for us in the historic perspective? Nothing.”

Scholz also said diplomatic options are “far from exhausted,” and he praised the announcement of a troop withdrawal as a “good signal,” adding: “We hope that more will follow.”

The Russian Defense Ministry released images of tanks and howitzers rolling onto railway platforms and more tanks rolling across snowy fields. It did not disclose where or when the images were taken, or where the vehicles were headed, other than “to places of permanent deployment.”

Ukraine expressed skepticism

“We won’t believe when we hear, we’ll believe when we see,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

And NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that there have been no signs, so far, of a reduced military presence on Ukraine’s borders.

Meanwhile, a series of cyberattacks knocked out the websites of the Ukrainian army, the defense ministry, and major banks. There was no indication that the relatively low-level denial-of-service attacks might be a smokescreen for more serious cyber mischief. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the U.S. has not yet determined who was behind the attacks.

Despite the worst East-West tensions in decades, few Russians expect a war. In a village in Russia’s Belgorod region, about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Ukraine’s border, residents carried on with life as usual, even as more military personnel have been passing through village streets.

“We are really on the border, we really have relatives here and there, everyone has somebody” on the Ukrainian side, villager Lyudmila Nechvolod said. “No one wants war.”

Russian legislators have pushed Putin to recognize the separatist-held territories of eastern Ukraine as separate republics. The State Duma, Russia’s lower chamber, voted to make such a request to Putin.

Putin said the request indicates Russian public compassion for those stuck in the fighting in eastern Ukraine, which has claimed the lives of nearly 14,000 people since 2014. He did say, though, that Russia still believes the 2015 peace pact signed by France and Germany should be the primary vehicle for resolving the separatist dispute.