How will insecurity impact the 2023 general elections?

With just a few days to the 2023 general elections, one of the major concerns of Nigerians right now is about how the insecurity in the various parts of the country may affect the conduct and outcome of the elections. It is not only the masses (electorates) that are concerned about this; everyone, including the candidates, the electoral umpires and the security agencies are concerned, even though they may not admit it.

The six geopolitical zones of the country have all had violent incidents, further separating it along tribal, religious, and political lines. Cases have been worse in the North-West and South-East, where banditry, terrorist operations, herder-farmer disputes, and secessionist agitations are having significant negative human and economic effects. The Boko Haram insurgency and the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) are still raging in the Northeast, and there are still communal disputes in North-Central Nigeria (Middle Belt).

More worrisome is the incessant attacks on facilities and offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the state level, which is an omen that the security of voters, INEC officials, election observers and any other person involved in the electoral process, is not guaranteed. And of course, there can be no credible election where insecurity is the order of the day.

To conduct a successful election in the nation of an estimated 210 million people, INEC may require more than 1.4 million ad-hoc officials. It could be challenging to find the right workforce because of the threat of violence. In addition, the incessant attacks on INEC’s infrastructure will hinder the commission’s ability to plan properly and stay within budget as it works to replace damaged materials. Insecurity will also affect INEC’s capacity to reach more than 176,000 polling locations, deploy to all registration areas nationwide, and provide voters with necessary voting materials.

Also dispersed over more than 20 states in Nigeria are an estimated three million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Given that voting is dependent on where a person is registered, it is very likely that many IDPs won’t be allowed to vote. Even though IDP voting was held in the northeast and north-central in 2015 and 2019 within the structure and rules that INEC has now established, the governors of the northwest, southeast and other areas affected by recent flooding have refused to proclaim an IDP situation or even to permit the establishment of official camps, thus there is no justification for the use of this specific strategy.

Election cycles in Nigeria have often included elements of insecurity and political violence. However, no election has ever been threatened by such pervasive insecurity as this one. The fear of violence may prevent people from going to the polls, which would result in a turnout even lower than the 34.75% recorded in 2019 and more reflection on the viability of Nigeria’s democracy. Even worse, given the constitutional rules requiring a winner to gain 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the states for the presidential election or districts in the case of governors, it may preclude INEC from announcing a winner in national or some subnational polls.

Also, recent claims about the unsatisfactory actions of the security forces in the southeast raise the possibility that they may lose their ability to serve as a guarantor of security, which could have an impact on the conduct of secure and reliable elections. However, insecurity in the lead-up to elections could be addressed with a more serious strategy such as stepping up military activities. The security forces should identify beforehand the regions that are susceptible to the use of strategic election violence and take additional precautions to prevent such criminal disruption while implementing strategic actions to checkmate insecurity, protect the electorates, and safeguard the electoral process.

How will insecurity impact the 2023 general elections?