Russian Pledge to Scale Back in Ukraine Draws Skepticism

By Derrick Bangura – Russia’s pledge to scale back some military operations in Ukraine drew skepticism, a bitter reality check in a rare moment of optimism five weeks into what has devolved into a bloody war of attrition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there was no reason to believe Russia’s announcement that it would reduce military activity near Kyiv, the capital, as well as in the northern city of Chernihiv, given what’s happening on the ground.
“We can call those signals that we hear at the negotiations positive,” he said in his nightly video address to the Ukrainian people. “But those signals don’t silence the explosions of Russian shells.”

Still, Tuesday’s talks sketched out what could end up being a framework for ending the war that has imposed an increasingly punishing toll, with thousands dead and more than 4 million Ukrainians fleeing the country. The talks had been expected to resume on Wednesday, but with what Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called “meaningful” progress made, the two sides decided to return home for consultations.

At the conference in Istanbul, Ukraine’s delegation laid a framework under which the country would declare itself neutral and its security would be guaranteed by an array of other nations.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said Moscow would in the meantime “fundamentally … cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” to “increase mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations.”

He did not spell out what that would mean in practical terms.

Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky said negotiators would take Ukraine’s proposals to Russian President Vladimir Putin and then Moscow would provide a response, but he did not say when.

Cavusoglu said he expected a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers at an unspecified time. Another between the presidents of the two countries is also “on the agenda,” he said. Russian state news agency Tass reported that Moscow’s delegates arrived back in Russia late Tuesday.

In the wake of the flurry of proposals and some muted optimism, Zelenskyy warned the world and his own people not to get ahead of themselves. He said Ukrainian troops had forced Russia’s hand, adding that “we shouldn’t let down our guard” because the invading army can still carry out attacks.

“Ukrainians are not naïve people,” he said. “Ukrainians have already learned during the 34 days of the invasion and during the past eight years of war in the Donbas that you can trust only concrete results.”

The U.S. and others also expressed doubts about Russia’s intentions.

While Moscow portrayed it as a goodwill gesture, its ground troops have become bogged down and taken heavy losses in their attempts to seize Kyiv and other cities. Last week and again on Tuesday, the Kremlin seemed to lower its war aims, saying its “main goal” is gaining control of the mostly Russian-speaking Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

“We judge the Russian military machine by its actions, not just its words,” British Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told Sky News on Wednesday. “There’s obviously some skepticism that it will regroup to attack again rather than seriously engaging in diplomacy.”

He added that “of course the door to diplomacy will always be left ajar, but I don’t think you can trust what is coming out of the mouth of Putin’s war machine.”

Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Wednesday that Russia stating a focus on Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region “is likely a tacit admission that it is struggling to sustain more than one significant axis of advance.”

“Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganize and supply,” the ministry said in a statement. “Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine.”