NBS Records 3.4% GDP Growth, Highest Since 2014

By Derrick Bangura.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.40 percent in 2021, the highest rate since 2014 when the economy grew by 6.22 percent.
According to the NBS’s National GDP Q4 report, the non-oil sector accounted for the majority of the increase in economic activity.
The survey also indicated that the country’s GDP increased by 3.98 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4 2021), down from 4.03 percent the previous quarter.

Since the 2020 recession, when output declined by 6.10 percent and 3.62 percent respectively in the second and third quarters of that year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the performance has been positive for five consecutive quarters.
The economy was driven primarily by the non-oil sector, which accounted for 94.81 percent of GDP, while the oil industry contributed 5.19 percent to growth, according to the statistical agency’s report.
In 2021, the Q4 growth suggested a steady economic rebound, with an annual growth rate of 3.40 percent. It was noted that the growth rate during the review period was 3.87 percentage points greater than the 0.11 percent recorded in Q4 2020 and 0.05 percentage points lower than the 4.03 percent recorded in Q3.
Nonetheless, the NBS claimed that real GDP increased by 9.63 percent quarter over quarter in Q4, indicating increased economic activity over the previous quarter.
The average daily oil output was 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd), down from 1.57 mbpd in the third quarter and 1.56 mbpd in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In real terms, oil growth in Q4 was -8.06 percent, with an annual growth rate of -8.30 percent in 2021. Oil contributed 7.24 percent on an annual basis, compared to 8.16 percent in 2020.
In real terms, the non-oil sector, which excludes crude petroleum and natural gas activities, grew by 4.73 percent in Q4 2020, up from 1.69 percent in Q4 2020.
The sector grew by 4.44 percent annually in 2018, compared to -1.25 percent in 2020.
However, the non-oil sector’s annual contribution grew to 92.76 percent in 2020, up from 91.84 percent in 2020.
The services sector accounted for 55.11 percent of total growth, while agriculture accounted for 26.84 percent.
In real terms, the services sector contributed 55.11 percent to total growth, while agriculture contributed 26.84 percent in Q4, down from 29.94 percent the previous quarter and 26.95 percent in Q4 2020.
The manufacturing industry provided 8.46% of the total, down from 8.60% in Q3 and 8.98% in Q4 2020.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP in Q4 was N49.28 trillion, up from N43.56 trillion in Q4 2020 and reflecting a 13.11 percent year-on-year growth rate.
The preceding quarter’s nominal GDP was N45.11 trillion, while the annual nominal value in 2021 was N173.53 trillion, up from N152.32 trillion in 2020, representing a 13.92 percent growth rate.
In terms of real GDP, which measures the level of economic activity, N20.33 trillion was recorded in Q4, up from N18.54 trillion the previous quarter and also up by N778.91 billion from N19.55 trillion in Q4 2020.
The nominal GDP growth rate in Q4 was greater than the 10.07 percent growth rate in the same quarter of 2020, but lower than the 15.41 percent growth rate in the previous quarter.
Annual nominal growth in 2021, on the other hand, was 13.92 percent.
“The increase in output growth recorded in the last five quarters indicates a sustained progress made in halting the COVID-19 pandemic and its accompanying detrimental impact on livelihood, well-being, and the economy,” according to the NBS.
In comparison to 2020, when COVID-19 was endemic, several countries have seen an improvement in economic performance. As a result, economic recovery is a long process that necessitates concerted efforts across institutional sectors to boost economic activity, “However, given Nigeria’s improved economic performance during these periods of time, the chances of consolidating the recovery are striking.”