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WTO slashes 2023 global trade forecast as recession looms

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The World Trade Organization on Wednesday dramatically lowered its global trade forecast for 2023, as Russia’s war in Ukraine and other shocks take their toll on the world economy.

“Today the global economy faces multi-prong crises. Monetary tightening is weighing on growth across much of the world,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva.

Presenting a revision of their annual trade forecast, WTO economists said they still anticipate global economic growth to rise by 2.8 percent this year, in line with their expectations in April.

But they said that for 2023, GDP growth is now expected to be just 2.3 percent, down from the previous forecast of 3.2 percent.

By way of comparison, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which has maintained its 2022 forecast at three percent, expects 2.2 percent growth next year.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth at 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2023.

As for global merchandise trade, WTO economists said they now expect its volume to grow 3.5 percent this year, which is slightly higher than previously expected.

They then expect the volume to grow by only one percent in 2023 — dramatically down from the 3.4 percent forecast in April.

“The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

 

READ ALSO: IMF Raises Nigeria’s Economic Growth Projection to 3.4%

 

The WTO said surging energy prices in Europe, stemming from the war in Ukraine, were expected to squeeze household spending and raise manufacturing costs on the continent.

Meanwhile monetary policy tightening in the United States was hitting the housing, motor vehicle and fixed investment sectors, and China was still grappling with Covid-19 outbreaks and production disruptions.

Furthermore, the growing import bills for fuel, food and fertiliser risked leading to more food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries, the WTO said.

If its forecasts pan out, world trade will slow considerably next year, but will still continue to grow.

The global trade body stressed the vast uncertainty surrounding the forecasts, due to “shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and the unpredictable nature of the Russia-Ukraine war.”

If the situation deteriorates, the WTO warned that trade growth next year could be as low as minus 2.8 percent, but it emphasised that if things shift in a more positive direction, it could be as high as 4.6 percent.

Last week, Okonjo-Iweala warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, food price and energy shocks plus the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic were creating the conditions for a world recession.

“Now we have to weather what looks like an oncoming recession,” she told the opening of the WTO’s annual public forum in Geneva.

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Agriculture

KWASU Microfinance Bank disburses loan to farmers

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KWASU Microfinance Bank disburses loan to farmers

The Kwara State University (KWASU) Microfinance Bank has provided loan facilities to farmer groups in and around Malete, Moro Local Government Area.

The Vice-Chancellor and Chairman of the Board of Trustees, KWASU Microfinance Bank, Prof. Jimoh Shaykh-Luqman, announced this while presenting offer letters to the farmers’ associations at a formal event held on the university campus.

Addressing the farmers, the Vice-Chancellor, represented by the Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Administration), Prof. Moshood Jimba, said the agricultural loan scheme aimed to support farmers in boosting food production and enhancing food sustainability.

“The loan is meant to support your farm operations, especially in the upcoming planting season,” he said.

Prof. Shaykh-Luqman reaffirmed KWASU’s commitment to its mantra of being a “University for Community Development,” leveraging its expertise and resources to initiate programmes that drive local development.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of KWASU Microfinance Bank, Alhaji Hakeem Hassan, noted that the agricultural loan scheme was piloted last year with 15 farmers as beneficiaries.

He added that the pilot scheme yielded positive results for both the farmers and the bank, as all beneficiaries successfully repaid their loans.

Following this success, he said, the scheme had been expanded to include more farmers under various farmers’ associations.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the associations benefiting from the agricultural loan scheme include Alanu Agbelere Farmers Group, Agbedola Ketere Group, and Itesiwaju Agbe Group Omoni.

Others are Agbeloba Farmers Association (Malete Market), Agbeyewa Elemere Farmers Group, Agbe Olofeere Group, and Agbeloga Malete Farmers Group.

Speaking on behalf of the farmers, the Chairman of Agbeloba Farmers Association (Malete Market), Alhaji Mohammed Abdulrazaq, expressed gratitude to the university and the bank for their trust.

He pledged, on behalf of the beneficiaries, to utilise the loans effectively and ensure prompt repayment.

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Agriculture

Kano Govt. implements N2.3bn livestock empowerment programme

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Gov Yusuf directs aides to declare their assets

The Kano State Government has begun implementing the second phase of its livestock empowerment programme valued at N2.3bn under the Kano State Agro-Pastoral Development Project (KSADP).

The Commissioner for Agriculture and Natural Resources, Dr Mamood Danjuma, disclosed this while addressing newsmen on Thursday in Kano.

Danjuma said the initiative aims to support beneficiaries with livestock, feeds, drugs, and salt lick to enhance their economic well-being.

According to him, 911 beneficiaries are being supported with two rams each, feed for three months, drugs and salt lick, while 2,386 women are being supported with two goats and a buck goat in the poorest households in the state.

He explained that the total package under the empowerment programme showed that 1,342 bulls were procured by the government at the cost of N560m, 1,822 rams were procured at the cost of N175m  and 7,158 goats bought at the cost of N451m.

“Under the cattle scheme, each cattle gains 100kg over a period of 120 days. The fattening period is for 120 days, making three cycles possible in a year.

“As for the small ruminants fattening scheme, with the same 120-day fattening period yielding an extra 15kg/animal.

“The project promotes goats’ reproduction through women who will take care of the animals and sell the young ones to improve their income and standard of living,” he said.

He said that the programme promotes economic empowerment, particularly among women, by providing them with livestock to care for and sell, ultimately improving their income and standard of living.

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Agriculture

Gov. Idris vows to sustain free fertiliser policy for farmers

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Gov. Idris vows to sustain free fertiliser policy for farmers

Gov. Nasir Idris of Kebbi, has vowed to sustain free distribution of fertilisers to farmers up to the end of his tenure.

The governor made the promise at Shanga Local Government Area while addressing party loyalists in continuation of his thank-you tour to Local Government Areas of the state.

He observed that sustaining the free distribution of fertilisers to farmers would boost the morale of farmers, increase food production and contribute to national food security.

Idris also pledged to sustain the payment of Hadaya (sacrificial ram) for intending pilgrims in his efforts to assist the pilgrims.

He thanked the people of Shanga for the support and cooperation they have been rendering to his administration.

Speaking on education, the governor said his government would continue to offer free education to the people of Kebbi to pave the way for an educated society.

He recalled that the state government had been providing N175 million monthly for secondary school students’ feeding but now increased it to N300 million per month.

Receiving those who dumped People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for All Progressives Congress (APC), the governor, assured them of equal treatment, insisting that the present administration was for the entire people of the state.

On requests of road construction linking villages in the area, Gov. Idris assured to fulfil the demands to ease movement of goods and people in the area.

In his speech, the APC Chairman in the state, Alhaji Abubakar Kana-Zuru assured the new members that they would be given equal treatment.

He urged the council chairman, commissioner and other political office holders to integrate the new members to give them a sense of belonging.

In a welcome address, Babangida Aliyu, the party Chairman, Shanga Local Government appreciated the governor for bringing development to their area in different sectors.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the occasion also featured formal reception of about 8,000 PDP supporters including local government party exco, delegates and state assembly party candidate, Mustapha for 2019 and 2023 to ruling APC

 

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