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US economy crashes once more, Fuelling Recession Fears

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President Joe Biden

Gross domestic product, a wide-ranging measure of economic activity, fell by 0.9% on an annualized basis from April through June. That decline marks a key symbolic threshold for the most commonly used — albeit unofficial — definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

The hotly anticipated data release has taken on outsized significance as investors, policymakers and ordinary Americans seek some measure of clarity in the current muddled economic environment.

Although Thursday’s initial estimate marked a sharp drop from the 6.7% expansion the economy underwent in the second quarter of 2021, the White House has been adamant that the world’s largest economy, despite being buffeted by decades-high inflation and a cascade of supply shocks, remains fundamentally sound.

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The administration even took the unusual step of publishing an explainer of sorts, maintaining that two consecutive quarters of economic contraction does not, in and of itself, constitute a recession. The White House posted a blog entry last week saying that in addition to GDP, data pertaining to the labor market, corporate and personal spending, production, and incomes all go into the official determination of a recession.

The nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of recessions, and it is unlikely to render a verdict any time soon. The group’s Business Cycle Dating Committee typically weighs a plethora of statistics over a period of months before making a determination.

Economists say the biggest reason it would be premature to call a recession based on Thursday’s numbers is that the data can and probably will change. Subsequent revisions to first-quarter GDP figures, for instance, changed from an initial drop of 1.4% to 1.6%, and Thursday’s numbers are just the first of three estimates.

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Adjustments are the norm rather than the exception, since the Commerce Department repeatedly refines its calculations as new information becomes available. About a third of initial GDP releases rely on statistical extrapolations and assumptions in the absence of hard data, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

“These are typically single points in time, snapshots. It’s almost like looking at a balance sheet versus an income statement over a quarter,” said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at US Bank Wealth Management.

“New information can emerge,” he said, and when it does, those variables change the outcome.

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Sometimes, the differences between estimates are significant. Revisions to GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008, for example, revealed that economic activity actually plunged by an annualized -8.4%, indicating a much deeper recession than the initial estimate of -3.8% suggested.

Right now, the biggest smudge on the lens preventing economists from getting a clear picture is a buildup of inventories and a corresponding imbalance in the country’s usual trade flows.

“What you’re starting to see and hear a lot about right now is what’s happening with inventories… Inventories are an issue, both in terms of the mix of inventory retailers are holding as well as the amount,” Freedman said.

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A rush to load up on goods during the previous two quarters was a miscalculation for companies like big-box stores. Walmart and Target have both told investors they expect to cut prices to move products. But from a macroeconomic perspective, some experts think those missteps imply that the economy in the first quarter was not as anemic as the drop in GDP might otherwise imply.

Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, suggested that the 1.6% contraction in first-quarter GDP was artificially low because businesses started stockpiling inventory in the final quarter of last year. This pulled forward economic activity that otherwise would have taken place in the early months of this year, she said.

“The fourth quarter, to me, was bloated a little bit,” Rathbun said. “Everyone was just hoarding things.”

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In addition, when companies import more and export less, that dynamic weighs on GDP, said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“It’s the value of production within the physical borders of the United States, so therefore if you have, hypothetically, exports that are flat and higher imports, then your trade deficit is rising. In that sense, a rising trade deficit subtracts from GDP,” he said, particularly when combined with wild swings in prices.

“When you have highly fluctuating commodity prices, and especially in periods of high inflation in general, then it can be misleading and, in my opinion, paint an overly negative view of where the economy is,” Kirkegaard said. “We have to be careful with saying the GDP number is the absolutely valid metric for economic well-being in the country.”

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated the importance of considering various key economic measures as the central bank determines future rate moves. However, Powell said the first read of a GDP report should be taken “with a grain of salt

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Headlines

NNPC Foundation Trains Over 3,000 Southwest Farmers in Climate-Smart Agriculture

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In a bid to promote food security and sustainable agricultural practices, the NNPC Foundation has successfully trained more than 3,000 farmers in the South-West geopolitical zone on climate-smart and modern farming techniques.

The training, which concluded on Friday in Ikorodu, Lagos, marked the end of the Southwest phase of the foundation’s pilot programme aimed at empowering local farmers and boosting agro-productivity.

Speaking at the closing ceremony, Managing Director of the NNPC Foundation, Mrs. Emmanuella Arukwe, described the initiative as a milestone in the lives of thousands of farmers.

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“Today marks the formal conclusion of the first phase of a national journey that speaks to resilience, food security, and economic empowerment,” Arukwe said.
“What began as a bold decision to support small holder farmers has translated into tangible action across three geopolitical zones (South-East, South-South, and South-West) in Southern Nigeria.”

She disclosed that a total of 3,860 vulnerable farmers across 10 locations in the three regions were trained in sustainable farming practices that improve productivity and market access.

“This achievement is not just a number, but a milestone in the lives of real people and real communities. We were able to strengthen farmers’ capacity to adapt to climate change,” she added.
“Through the training, we were able to improve access to markets, promote inclusive agriculture and especially gender representation. We also trained them on enhancing food production through sustainable techniques.”

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Arukwe noted that the programme would now move to the North-West, North-Central, and North-East zones as part of its next phase, saying the foundation is committed to supporting livelihoods nationwide.

“This is only Phase One. We will now turn our focus to the North-West, North-Central, and North-East zones. What we have achieved in the South will inform and strengthen our next steps,” she said.
“The NNPC Foundation will continue this mission, to support livelihoods, build resilience, and empower the hands that feed our families and beyond.
We have decided that most times you get a lot of requests from people asking us to give them palliatives and all kinds of things to help them.
But we think it is much better to teach people to fish than just give them fish so they can continue,” Arukwe explained.

Chairman of Ikorodu Local Government, Mr. Wasiu Adesina, while commending the initiative, urged the beneficiaries to apply the knowledge gained to boost productivity and profitability.

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“As we all know, agriculture is the bedrock of any nation. Without agriculture, there will not be a nation, because there will be no food to eat,” Adesina stated.
“It is the farmers that produce our food, and it is important that we train our farmers with new techniques in agriculture, and that is exactly what the NNPC Foundation is doing.

“To the farmers, you have to take advantage of this training and face the farming squarely. In some great countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, farmers are the most richest people in those countries.

“This is because they make a lot of money from farming. We need to inculcate that habit in Nigeria and develop ideas in farming. Even after my tenure, I am going back to farming, so, maybe I will ask the NNPC Foundation to train me so that I also join you to be a farmer.”

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He appealed to the foundation to provide further empowerment for the trained farmers to help them kickstart their agricultural ventures.

“If the farmers have land for farming, I believe the foundation will provide financial aid to keep their farms running,” Adesina added.

Also speaking at the event, the Lagos State Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Systems, Ms. Abisola Olusanya, represented by the Director of Fisheries, Mrs. Osunkoya Daisi, lauded the Foundation’s efforts in bolstering the state’s food security.

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“On behalf of the Lagos State Government, we would like to express our sincere appreciation to NNPC Foundation for training our farmers and for training all the farmers all over the country,” she said.
“Definitely, the training will help improve food production. We can see the impact of climate change effects in agriculture. I am sure farmers have been equipped with climate-smart agriculture techniques to improve production.”

The NNPC Foundation Ltd/Gte is the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) arm of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. It was incorporated in February 2023 to manage the company’s CSR initiatives and enhance Nigeria’s socio-economic development.

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Education

NUC grants ESUT full accreditation for Law, 7 other programmes

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The National Universities Commission, (NUC), has given full accreditation to the Enugu State University of Science and Technology (ESUT), for her Law programme.

According to the Public Relations Officer of ESUT, Mr Ikechukwu Ani, this is contained in a letter addressed to the institution’s Vice Chancellor, Prof. Aloysius Okolie, on Wednesday in Enugu by the NUC.

Ani said that in the letter, the Executive Secretary of NUC, Prof. Abdullahi Ribadu said the report was contained in the result of the October/November 2024 accreditation of academic programmes in Nigerian universities.

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Ani disclosed that other programmes in the institution accredited by the NUC include Master of Science in Business Management; Education Computer Science; Education Physics and Agricultural Engineering.

Other accredited programmes he said were Quantity Surveying; Urban and Regional Planning; and Applied Microbiology.

He said that the letter quoted Section 10 (1) of the Education National Minimum Standard and Establishment of Institutions, Act CAP E3, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004 as empowering the NUC to lay down minimum academic standards for all academic programmes taught in Nigerian universities.

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He said the session also empowers the NUC to accredit such programmes.

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Crime

Court remands 2 over alleged attempted murder

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Court discharges man accused of burning father’s house in Abuja

An Ikeja Magistrates’ Court, Lagos, on Wednesday, remanded two persons, Olaitan Fasasi and Kehinde Tobiloba in a correctional facility over alleged attempted murder.

Fasasi, 40, and Tobiloba, 26, whose addresses were not provided, are being charged with conspiracy, attempted murder and membership of a secret society.

The Magistrate, Mr L.A Owolabi, did not take the plea of the defendants for want of jurisdiction.

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Owolabi directed the police to forward the case file to the Director of Public Prosecution for legal advice.

He thereafter adjourned the case until May 31 for mention.

The Prosecutor, Josephine Ikhayere, told the court that the defendants committed the offences at about 5.02p.m on Feb. 15, at Mushin, Lagos.

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She said that Fasasi, Tobiloba and others now at large, attempted to commit murder by shooting at a resident, Alfred Ademola.

“They armed themselves with a locally made gun. They belong to Eiye Confraternity, a group proscribed by law,”, she said.

Ikhayere said that the offences contravened Sections 230(1) and 411 of the Criminal Law of Lagos State, 2012.

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He said that the actions of the defendants also contravened Section 2(3)(a)(b)(c)(d) of the unlawful societies and Cultism Law of Lagos State Law.

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