Feature
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE: WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE WAR CONTINUES?
By Matthew Eloyi – The fact that Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in a massive escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that began in 2014, is no longer news. It is Europe's
biggest military confrontation since World War II. The invasion resulted in the largest refugee
crisis in Europe since then, with over 3.1 million Ukrainians fleeing the country.
The conflict, which has continued to linger, is a big setback for the global economy, causing
growth to slow and prices to rise. Aside the misery and humanitarian disaster caused by Russia's
invasion of Ukraine, the world economy as a whole will suffer from weaker development and
higher inflation, if the war continues in the next six months.
There will be three major channels through which the effects will be felt. One, increasing costs
for commodities such as food and energy will drive inflation higher, diminishing the value of
incomes and putting downward pressure on demand. Two, adjacent economies will face
disruptions in commerce, supply chains, and remittances, as well as an unprecedented increase in
refugee movements. Finally, lower company confidence and increased investor uncertainty will
put downward pressure on asset values, tightening financial conditions and perhaps causing
capital outflows from emerging markets.
Russia and Ukraine are important commodity producers, and the interruptions have driven up
worldwide prices, particularly for oil and natural gas. Food prices have risen sharply, with wheat
shipments from Ukraine and Russia accounting for 30% of global exports.
Countries with direct trade, tourist, and financial exposures will face extra pressures in addition
to global spillovers. Oil-importing economies will experience larger fiscal and trade deficits, as
well as increased inflation pressure, though some exporters, such as those in the Middle East and
Africa, may benefit from higher prices.
Increased food and fuel prices may exacerbate the danger of unrest in several countries, ranging
from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to the Caucasus and Central Asia, while food
insecurity in parts of Africa and the Middle East is likely to worsen.
In Ukraine, the toll has already been enormous. Unprecedented sanctions against Russia will
stifle financial intermediation and trade, resulting in a deep recession in the country. The fall of
the ruble is boosting inflation, further lowering people's living standards.
Because Russia is a major source of natural gas imports, energy is the primary spillover channel
for Europe. Wider supply-chain disruptions could have serious consequences. These
repercussions will exacerbate inflation and slow the pandemic's recovery. Eastern Europe will
face increased finance costs as well as an influx of refugees. According to UN estimates, it has
absorbed the majority of the 3 million refugees who recently evacuated Ukraine.
Additional spending on energy security and defense budgets could put economic strain on
European countries. While foreign exposure to Russian assets is small by global standards,
pressures on developing markets could increase as investors seek safer havens.
African countries are also vulnerable to the war's consequences, owing to rising oil and food
costs, diminished tourism, and the possibility of problems accessing international credit markets.
The dispute arises at a time when most governments have limited policy options to mitigate the
shock's effects. This is expected to exacerbate socioeconomic pressures, public debt
vulnerability, and scarring from the pandemic, which was already wreaking havoc on millions of
homes and businesses. Record wheat prices are especially worrying for a region that imports
around 85% of its supplies, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for one-third of that.
The consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine have already shaken not just those
countries, but also the region and the rest of the world. While some effects may take years to
manifest, there are already clear signs that the war and the resulting increase in the cost of
essential commodities will make it more difficult for policymakers in some countries to strike the
delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting the pandemic's economic recovery.
Africa
Customs hands over illicit drugs worth N117.59m to NDLEA
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Ogun Area 1 Command, has handed over illicit drugs worth N117.59 million to the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA).
The Comptroller of the command, Mr James Ojo, disclosed this during the handing over of the drugs to Mr Olusegun Adeyeye, the Commander of NDLEA, Idiroko Special Area Command, in Abeokuta, Ogun, on Friday.
Ojo said the customs handed over the seized cannabis and tramadol tablets to the Idiroko Special Command for further investigation in line with the standard operating procedures and inter-agency collaboration.
He said the illicit drugs were seized in various strategic locations between January and November 21, 2024, in Ogun State.
He added that the illicit drugs were abandoned at various locations, including the Abeokuta axis, the Agbawo/Igankoto area of Yewa North Local Government Area, and Imeko Afton axis.
Ojo said that the seizure of the cannabis sativa and tramaling tablets, another brand of tramadol, was made possible through credible intelligence and strategic operations of the customs personnel.
“The successful interception of these dangerous substances would not have been possible without the robust collaboration and support from our intelligence units, local informants and sister agencies.
“These landmark operations are testament to the unwavering dedication of the NCS to safeguard the health and well-being of our citizens and uphold the rule of law,” he said.
He said the seizures comprised 403 sacks and 6,504 parcels, weighing 7,217.7 kg and 362 packs of tramaling tablets of 225mg each, with a total Duty Paid Value of N117,587,405,00.
He described the height of illicit drugs smuggling in the recent time as worrisome.
This, he said, underscores the severity of drug trafficking within the borders.
“Between Oct. 13 and Nov. 12 alone, operatives intercepted a total of 1,373 parcels of cannabis sativa, weighing 1,337kg and 362 packs of tramaling tablets of 225mg each,” he said.
Ojo said the seizures had disrupted the supply chain of illicit drugs, thereby mitigating the risks those substances posed to the youth, families and communities.
He lauded the synergy between its command, security agencies and other stakeholders that led to the remarkable achievements.
Ojo also commended the Comptroller General of NCS for creating an enabling environment for the command to achieve the success.
Responding, Adeyeye, applauded the customs for achieving the feat.
Adeyeye pledged to continue to collaborate with the customs to fight against illicit trade and drug trafficking in the state.
Africa
Ann-Kio Briggs Faults Tinubu for Scrapping Niger Delta Ministry
Prominent Niger Delta human rights activist and environmentalist, Ann-Kio Briggs, has criticised President Bola Tinubu’s decision to scrap the Ministry of Niger Delta, describing it as ill-advised and detrimental to the oil-rich region.
Briggs expressed her concerns during an appearance on Inside Sources with Laolu Akande, a socio-political programme aired on Channels Television.
“The Ministry of Niger Delta was created by the late (President Umaru) Yar’Adua. There was a reason for the creation. So, just removing it because the president was advised. I want to believe that he was advised because if he did it by himself, that would be terribly wrong,” she stated.
President Tinubu, in October, dissolved the Ministry of Niger Delta and replaced it with the Ministry of Regional Development, which is tasked with overseeing all regional development commissions, including the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), North-West Development Commission, and North-East Development Commission.
Briggs questioned the rationale behind the restructuring, expressing concerns about its feasibility and implications. “But that’s not going to be the solution because who is going to fund the commissions? Is it the regions because it is called the Regional Development Ministry? Is it the states in the regions? What are the regions because we don’t work with regions right now; we are working with geopolitical zones,” she remarked.
She added, “Are we going back to regionalism? If we are, we have to discuss it. The president can’t decide on his own to restructure Nigeria. If we are restructuring Nigeria, the president alone can’t restructure Nigeria, he has to take my opinion and your opinion into consideration.”
Briggs also decried the longstanding neglect of the Niger Delta despite its significant contributions to Nigeria’s economy since 1958. “The Niger Delta has been developing Nigeria since 1958. We want to use our resources to develop our region; let regions use their resources to develop themselves,” she asserted.
Reflecting on the various bodies established to address the region’s development, Briggs lamented their failure to deliver meaningful progress. She highlighted the Niger Delta Basin Authority, the Oil Mineral Producing Areas Development Commission (OMPADEC), and the NDDC as examples of ineffective interventions.
“NDDC was created by Olusegun Obasanjo…There was OMPADEC before NDDC. OMPADEC was an agency. Before OMPADEC, there was the Basin Authority…These authorities were created to help us. Were we helped by those authorities? No, we were not,” she said.
Briggs further described the NDDC as an “ATM for failed politicians, disgruntled politicians, and politicians that have had their electoral wins taken away from them and given to somebody else.”
Her remarks underscore the deep-seated frustrations in the Niger Delta, where residents continue to advocate for greater control over their resources and improved governance.
Feature
Securing the Digital Frontier: Global and Nigerian Cybersecurity Landscape
“Cybersecurity is much more than a matter of IT; it’s a matter of national security.”
— Pauline Neville-Jones, former UK Minister for Security
By Ernest Ogezi
As the digital landscape rapidly expands, the global cybersecurity situation has reached a critical juncture. In an increasingly interconnected world, the scale and frequency of cyber threats continue to escalate, affecting individuals, businesses, and governments alike. October, designated as National Cybersecurity Awareness Month, serves as a stark reminder of the growing importance of cybersecurity and the collective responsibility we all share in securing our digital spaces.
Globally, the numbers paint a grim picture. According to a 2024 report by IBM Security, the average cost of a data breach has soared to $4.88 million, marking the highest figure ever recorded. This staggering figure underscores the severe financial implications of cyber incidents. Additionally, the number of data compromises worldwide in the first half of 2024 rose to 1,571, a 14% increase from 2023. These statistics highlight the growing sophistication of cyberattacks and the pressing need for more robust defenses. Ransomware, phishing, and advanced persistent threats (APTs) continue to dominate the threat landscape, with attackers constantly evolving their tactics.
The situation in Nigeria mirrors global trends but presents its own set of unique challenges. As Africa’s largest economy and a rapidly growing digital hub, Nigeria has experienced a surge in cybercrime activity. In 2022 alone, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) recorded over 60,000 cyberattacks on financial institutions, amounting to billions in losses. The rise of digital banking, e-commerce, and the widespread adoption of mobile devices have made the country a prime target for cybercriminals. In response to these challenges, the Nigerian government has taken significant steps to bolster the nation’s cybersecurity infrastructure, with the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) playing a pivotal role.
NITDA, the agency responsible for regulating and promoting Nigeria’s IT ecosystem, has been at the forefront of the country’s cybersecurity efforts. In line with its mandate to foster a safe and secure digital environment, NITDA has implemented a series of initiatives aimed at enhancing cybersecurity awareness, promoting best practices, and strengthening the country’s defense against cyber threats. The agency’s role in cybersecurity is multi-faceted, focusing on policy development, capacity building, and public-private partnerships.
One of NITDA’s key contributions has been the development of Nigeria’s National Cybersecurity Strategy, which outlines the country’s approach to combating cyber threats. The strategy emphasizes the importance of protecting critical infrastructure, safeguarding personal data, and building cyber resilience. It also focuses on creating a culture of cybersecurity awareness across all sectors of society. NITDA has been instrumental in implementing this strategy by working with stakeholders to ensure its effectiveness.
In October 2024, as part of National Cybersecurity Awareness Month, NITDA launched a nationwide awareness campaign to educate individuals and organizations on the importance of cybersecurity. The campaign, which aligns with the global theme “Secure Our World,” emphasizes the shared responsibility of all Nigerians in protecting the digital landscape. Through workshops, webinars, and educational materials, NITDA is working to equip citizens with the knowledge and tools they need to safeguard their digital assets.
A key focus of NITDA’s efforts has been the protection of Nigeria’s critical infrastructure, including the financial, energy, and healthcare sectors. Cyberattacks on these sectors can have devastating consequences, not only financially but also in terms of public safety. In response, NITDA has collaborated with both national and international organizations to enhance the cybersecurity frameworks of these industries, ensuring that they are equipped to defend against evolving threats.
Beyond its focus on critical infrastructure, NITDA has made significant strides in fostering a cybersecurity-conscious workforce. Through its Cybersecurity Awareness Program, the agency has trained thousands of IT professionals, law enforcement officers, and government personnel on the latest cybersecurity trends and defense techniques. This capacity-building initiative is crucial for ensuring that Nigeria has a skilled workforce capable of responding to the ever-changing threat landscape.
Despite these efforts, the scale and complexity of cyber threats continue to grow. The rise of ransomware attacks, data breaches, and phishing schemes poses significant risks to both the public and private sectors. NITDA recognizes that cybersecurity is not a static field but one that requires constant vigilance and adaptation. The agency is therefore committed to continuously improving Nigeria’s cybersecurity posture through policy updates, enhanced defenses, and ongoing education.
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