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Analysis

Charting a Path for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Amidst High Expectations

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Charting a Path for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Amidst High Expectations

By Zachariah Adigizi Hyellamada

Tinubu steps into a nation weighed down by simultaneous challenges in security and economy. The Nigerian populace anticipates his adeptness in harmonizing the nation and countering economic strains, partly stemming from the withdrawal of unsustainable subsidy systems that have previously shackled the government’s financial capabilities. Tinubu has already embarked on initial steps, such as the eradication of the petroleum subsidy, an action expected to save Nigeria a substantial $5.10 billion in the latter half of 2023. This fund injection could potentially foster growth and be allocated to developmental initiatives.

Furthermore, Tinubu’s ascendancy to the role of chairman for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) arrives at a pivotal moment for African leadership on the global stage. A noticeable need for strong leadership and improved coordination between African nations has surfaced, particularly evident in the discord among African countries concerning the future global financial architecture. Tinubu’s leadership acumen could be a catalyst for unification, compelling African nations to present a consolidated front that is not swayed by superficial agreements. This united front could advocate for more substantial measures, aligning with the strategic recommendations from the Africa High-Level Working Group on the Global Financial Architecture. The objective: pushing affluent nations to champion African debt relief and channel fresh financing towards climate action.

Navigating Complex Domestic Terrain
Tinubu’s administration is confronted with the arduous task of addressing a fractured social contract between the government and its citizens, exacerbated by economic inequalities that frequently manifest as instability and criminal activities.

Although these conditions were not forged by Tinubu’s administration, it is entrusted with the responsibility of remedying them through prudent economic and security strategies. The administration’s response has been characterized by resolute security measures and bold economic policies, which include the termination of fuel subsidies. A significant stride has been the enactment of the Student Loan Act, a pivotal mechanism to enhance higher education accessibility. Additionally, the suspension of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) governor was enacted to depoliticize the position. Notably, the newly appointed Acting Governor of the CBN, Folashodun Shonubi, terminated the utilization of multiple exchange rates, introducing a more open exchange rate system. This change curbs the arbitrage between the black-market and official foreign-exchange rates that previously enabled rent-seeking practices.
Yet, the journey ahead for Tinubu is substantial. To maintain public confidence, the administration should effectively communicate that addressing Nigeria’s two primary economic challenges – high inflation and unemployment – necessitates striking a balance. Efforts to tackle one issue may temporarily exacerbate the other. However, the administration should strategically prioritize economic expansion and job creation. This emphasis is particularly crucial due to the concurrent pressures of endogenous and exogenous inflation. The removal of the petrol subsidy and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market have compounded these inflationary pressures.

Read Also: THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY: WHERE ARE WE NOW?

While external inflationary influences are fueled by global events such as rising food prices and currency fluctuations, domestic factors, including the removal of subsidies and currency devaluation, have accentuated Nigeria’s economic challenges. Tinubu’s economic reforms are pivotal in alleviating these concerns, particularly the urgent need to diminish Nigeria’s estimated debt service-to-revenue ratio of 73.5% in 2023, and its debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 37.1% this year.

The Tinubu administration’s approach strikes a balance between economic reforms and amplified social programs. The Nigerian Senate’s approval of an $800 million World Bank loan to counteract inflationary pressures post-subsidy removal exemplifies a comprehensive approach. The administration’s prioritization of affordable food and clean water as national-security imperatives underscores its commitment to citizens’ welfare. However, it is imperative to note that debt-financed strategies are short-term solutions. The administration’s focus must pivot towards augmenting internally generated revenue, refining infrastructure, and fostering a conducive environment for economic growth and job creation. Enhancing tax payment processes and harmonizing tax laws are critical steps in this direction, as they will augment the ease of doing business and subsequently expand the tax base, fostering economic growth and discouraging the exodus of talented young Nigerians.

The administration should also channel investments into infrastructure development, with a focus on implementing the 2023 Electricity Act. This act empowers states, corporations, and individuals to engage in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, bolstering private-sector investments. Presently, Nigeria’s electricity generation of four thousand megawatts falls drastically short of the required 30,000 megawatts for its population of over 210 million. Stable electricity provision is pivotal for industrialization, productivity enhancement, and the overall improvement of living standards. By adopting a grassroots-driven regional industrialization framework, the administration can transition the 80% of workers employed in low-productivity sectors into the formal economy, thereby elevating economic prospects.

Broader Economic Integration and Reimagination of Federal Character

The administration’s agenda must extend towards fostering robust economic integration across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. The Nigerian National Economic Council (NEC), comprising vice presidents and state governors, is strategically poised to facilitate this integration. Nigeria’s constitution stipulates that principal political officeholders reflect the “federal character” – representing diverse tribal, religious, and regional backgrounds. However, this concept has, over time, morphed into a mechanism for resource distribution and patronage. Tinubu’s administration should redefine these six geopolitical zones as catalysts for regional economic development. By leveraging inherent comparative advantages, these zones can drive productive economic activities, diminishing the current focus on mere resource allocation.

Furthermore, the Tinubu administration should embark on revitalizing Nigeria’s chronically underfunded tertiary education system. The creation of centers for entrepreneurship and green-technology innovation, uniting universities and polytechnic colleges, could serve as engines for developing solutions to the nation’s pressing challenges. A prime example is Nigeria’s annual expenditure of $22 billion on private electricity generators, despite a mere 2% adoption of solar power. The recently introduced $550-million off-grid solar electrification program, coupled with collaborations with polytechnics, holds the potential to offer domestic energy solutions for homes and small businesses.

Global Frontiers and Shaping Nigeria’s Leadership

The Tinubu administration finds itself at the crossroads of shaping Nigeria’s global leadership narrative. This journey begins with a purposeful engagement with Nigeria’s highly educated diaspora. Many of these individuals hold positions or lead organizations that can serve as conduits for international markets, capital inflow, and foreign direct investment.
Nigeria, as one of Africa’s leading economies, stands poised to wield its substantial influence. With Tinubu’s chairmanship of ECOWAS, Nigeria is endowed with an opportunity to forge a unified African stance on diverse issues. Central among these is the defense of a rules-based international order that resonates with African equity and strategic interests. This collective voice is indispensable for effectively championing African interests within the G20, including the potential for African Union membership in the forum, as well as other international platforms like the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and United Nations. Tinubu’s leadership will be instrumental in navigating regional challenges, including the recent coup in Niger, while responding judiciously as ECOWAS’ helmsman.

In the realm of international engagement, Tinubu’s administration needs to substantiate Nigeria’s capability to assume a leadership role. This endeavor starts with intentional engagement with the highly skilled Nigerian diaspora, who hold the potential to become bridges to international markets, financial resources, and foreign direct investment.
With Africa’s largest economy and population, coupled with Tinubu’s influential position, there is a surge in expectations for Nigeria to forge a consensus across various matters. This includes safeguarding a rules-based global order that accommodates African perspectives and strategic interests. Such strides are imperative for Nigeria to steer the advancement of African priorities within international platforms like the G20 and other pivotal forums. Amid regional challenges and critical developments such as the Niger coup, Tinubu’s leadership is undeniably at a crossroads. The world watches closely as he confronts these multifaceted challenges and endeavors to address them on the global stage.

In this intricate tapestry of challenges and opportunities, Tinubu’s administration must craft an inclusive domestic economic policy and a robust foreign policy agenda to enable Nigeria’s impactful international engagement. The global landscape teems with opportunities for the Nigerian government to deliver tangible outcomes for its citizens and the broader African continent. This moment calls for visionary leadership, and it’s up to Tinubu to seize this extraordinary opportunity.

Charting a Path for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Amidst High Expectations
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Analysis

Putting Competence Above Political Compensation: The Need for a Merit-Based Approach to Ministerial Appointments

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BREAKING: President Tinubu to address Nigerians today

By Matthew Eloyi

Expectations are high as Nigerians eagerly await the release of President Bola Tinubu’s ministerial list. In a country where political appointments often prioritize loyalty and favouritism over competence, it is imperative that we focus on the need to put competence above political compensation. At a critical juncture in our nation’s development, the selection of ministers based on merit becomes essential for achieving sustainable progress, sound governance, and socioeconomic growth.

The Impact of Political Compensation on Governance:

Historically, political compensation has plagued Nigeria’s governmental system, hindering progress, and stifling development. Appointment of ministers based solely on political allegiance rather than competency fosters a culture of mediocrity and undermines the delivery of effective public services. Consequently, Nigeria has suffered from inadequate governance, corruption, and a lack of progress in various sectors. It is high time the nation underwent a paradigm shift, placing competence at the heart of ministerial appointments.

The Importance of Merit and Competence:

When selecting ministers, it is vital to prioritize merit and competence over political considerations. A merit-based approach ensures that individuals with the right skills, knowledge, and experience occupy critical positions, leading to efficient policy formulation and effective service delivery. Meritorious appointments bring together a talented pool of individuals capable of driving positive change and innovation in various sectors, including healthcare, education, infrastructure, and economic development. By placing competency as the primary criterion, the government can tap into the country’s vast human potential, accelerating growth and development.

The Link Between Competent Ministers and Economic Growth:

Economic growth is contingent upon the implementation of sound policies driven by competent individuals who understand the intricacies of governance. Competent ministers possess the ability to translate policies into tangible actions, fostering an environment conducive to investment, job creation, and economic diversification. By appointing experts in specific fields, such as finance, industry, defence, and agriculture, Nigeria can harness its resources effectively, attract foreign investments, and foster sustainable economic growth. A merit-based approach to ministerial appointments is, therefore, crucial for achieving the nation’s socioeconomic objectives.

Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening:

Aside from short-term gains, a merit-based approach promotes long-term benefits, including capacity building and institutional strengthening. Competent ministers have the ability to mentor and empower their respective ministries, fostering a culture of excellence, professionalism, and productivity. Through effective leadership, they can drive reforms, enhance institutional capacity, and create a conducive environment for innovations, research, and development. This approach ensures sustainable growth and ensures that the wheels of progress continue turning even after their tenure.

Public Confidence and Trust:

A merit-based approach to ministerial appointments plays a significant role in restoring public confidence and trust in the government. Often, the appointment of unqualified individuals breeds disillusionment among citizens and hampers their belief in the system. By focusing on competence, the government demonstrates its commitment to effective governance, enhancing accountability and transparency. This, in turn, leads to a more engaged and participatory citizenry, supporting the government’s initiatives and contributing to the nation’s development.

Conclusion:

As Nigeria looks forward to a brighter future, it must prioritize competence over political compensation in ministerial appointments. By adopting a merit-based approach, the nation can empower capable individuals to lead critical sectors with integrity, expertise, and proficiency. This shift will lead to effective policy formulation, improved service delivery, and sustainable socioeconomic progress. It is the responsibility of both the government and the citizens to demand and uphold a meritocratic system that will unlock Nigeria’s immense potential and secure a prosperous future for all.

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Agriculture

WTO slashes 2023 global trade forecast as recession looms

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The World Trade Organization on Wednesday dramatically lowered its global trade forecast for 2023, as Russia’s war in Ukraine and other shocks take their toll on the world economy.

“Today the global economy faces multi-prong crises. Monetary tightening is weighing on growth across much of the world,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva.

Presenting a revision of their annual trade forecast, WTO economists said they still anticipate global economic growth to rise by 2.8 percent this year, in line with their expectations in April.

But they said that for 2023, GDP growth is now expected to be just 2.3 percent, down from the previous forecast of 3.2 percent.

By way of comparison, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which has maintained its 2022 forecast at three percent, expects 2.2 percent growth next year.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth at 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2023.

As for global merchandise trade, WTO economists said they now expect its volume to grow 3.5 percent this year, which is slightly higher than previously expected.

They then expect the volume to grow by only one percent in 2023 — dramatically down from the 3.4 percent forecast in April.

“The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

 

READ ALSO: IMF Raises Nigeria’s Economic Growth Projection to 3.4%

 

The WTO said surging energy prices in Europe, stemming from the war in Ukraine, were expected to squeeze household spending and raise manufacturing costs on the continent.

Meanwhile monetary policy tightening in the United States was hitting the housing, motor vehicle and fixed investment sectors, and China was still grappling with Covid-19 outbreaks and production disruptions.

Furthermore, the growing import bills for fuel, food and fertiliser risked leading to more food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries, the WTO said.

If its forecasts pan out, world trade will slow considerably next year, but will still continue to grow.

The global trade body stressed the vast uncertainty surrounding the forecasts, due to “shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and the unpredictable nature of the Russia-Ukraine war.”

If the situation deteriorates, the WTO warned that trade growth next year could be as low as minus 2.8 percent, but it emphasised that if things shift in a more positive direction, it could be as high as 4.6 percent.

Last week, Okonjo-Iweala warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, food price and energy shocks plus the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic were creating the conditions for a world recession.

“Now we have to weather what looks like an oncoming recession,” she told the opening of the WTO’s annual public forum in Geneva.

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Africa

THE FUTURE OF WEST AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

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THE FUTURE OF WEST AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

By Ernest Ogezi

Introduction

The West African region comprises 16 countries and has a projected population of about 422.8 million people in 2022 (Worldometer, 2022). The region covers 5,112,903 square km of land. The total domestic primary crop and livestock production in West Africa in 2020 was about 412 million metric tonnes, well over half the total primary crop and livestock production in the USA – 689.9 million metric tonnes (FAOSTAT, 2020). Nigeria is the dominant economic force in the region and the growth or contraction of its economy has significant impact on the region. The region is a net importer of food and agricultural products despite huge potentials for food security and self-sufficiency.

Global importance of the region

This segment focuses on the agricultural importance of the West African subregion through the crops the region has comparative advantage in. The region leads the world in Yam, Cassava, Fonio, Cocoa, Camel milk and Sheanut. It also has significant production capabilities in okra, Millet, Sweet potato and Sesame.

The region is the highest producer of most of the popular tubers in the world. Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast produce nearly all of the yam in the world. Nigeria is the highest producer of Yam in the World, producing about 45.4 million metric tonnes of the total 67.9 million metric tonnes. The Yam belt of the world is in West Africa as Bénin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo account for about 95% of the world’s total yam production making it the most important region.

The region is also a global power house in Fonio production as just Guinea, Nigeria and Mali account for 93.71% of Fonio production in the world. Guinea produces over 0.5 million metric tonnes (76.5%) of the total fonio in the world. Nigeria produces about one fifth of the world’s total cassava (19.8%), the highest by a single country. The country produced 54.4 million metric tonnes of the total 274.6 million metric tonnes produced in the world as per FAOSTAT data of 2020. The region registers a significant production of both ginger and okra as Nigeria is second in global production to India in both cases. Mali completes the top 3 in okra production. Niger is second highest producer of millet in the world as is Ivory Coast the second highest producer of cashew nuts in the world after India. Nigeria is in the top 4 highest producers of sweet potato and in the top 5 highest producers of sesame in the world. Camel milk production features Mali in the top 3 highest producing states, and is an all African affair except for Saudi Arabia coming in the fifth position.

Sheanut is predominantly produced in West Africa; the leading producer is Nigeria while Mali and Burkina Faso complete the top three in that order. Cocoa also shows a West African dominance. Ivory Coast is the World leader followed by Ghana, Indonesia comes third before Nigeria, and Ecuador closes the top 5. Nigeria is second only to the United States in sorghum production. Nigeria is also in the top five producers of pulses in the world. Despite the fact that its potentials are largely underexploited, the West African region is one of the most important agricultural regions of the world. The region producers some unique and important crops that are becoming more and more important all over the world as staples. West Africa is the fastest growing region in Africa both demographically and economically, and one of the fastest in the world (http://www.west-africa-brief.org/content/en/uemoa-economies-are-projected-grow-66-2020).

Source: Data extrapolated from FAOSTAT

Trends in West Africa

Trends in West African agriculture over the past decade does not show one direction but a number of production fluctuations. Cash crops showed unexpected dips and increases over the last decade and are expected to experience a -3% decrease in the current season. Industrial crops show significant increases in the current season projections (29%). Consumer expenditure will reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.9%. Policy trends that will influence Africa include the Malabo declaration and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

The year average of cereal production in West Africa was 71 million metric tonnes in the period between 2016/17 and 2020/21. Current cereal production (2021/22) is expected to rise to 73.3 million metric tonnes in the region. Over the same five-year period (2016/17 to 2020/21), production of the five major tubers (yam, cassava, sweet potato, Irish potato, and cocoyam) was an average of 180.6 million metric tonnes. The 2021/22 is forecasted at 202.9 million metric tonnes. Cash crops (groundnut, cotton seed, cowpeas, sesame, soybean and Bambara bean) are extrapolated to a shortfall between the five-year average (by –3%), from 0.189 million metric tonnes to 0.183 million metric tonnes in the current year expectation. It also means a – 23% decrease from the production of the previous years (FEWS NET, 2021).

Six selected industrial crops also show significant production increase in the current production cycle (2021/22) over the five-year period (2016/17 to 2020/21). The crops are cocoa, coffee, Hevea (rubber tree), cashew nut, oil palm tree and plantain. The current projected production is 14.5 million metric tonnes (2021/22). This is 29% higher than the five-year average that stood at only 10.3 million metric tonnes. Total cereal production in the region over the 6-year period of 2016 – 2021 (2021 estimated) stood at 72.15 million metric tonnes (FAO, 2022). Extrapolated data from FAOSTAT shows that the West African region has produced over 3.72 billion metric tonnes in the decade between 2011 and 2020.

The Malabo declaration of 2014 is an important trend in West African, and African, agriculture. This is the recommitment of African leaders to the 2003 Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) greater investment and improved productivity in the agriculture sector. The GDP of the region grew by average 4.95% from 2010 – 2018 which is higher than the world average of 3.15%; nonetheless, average GDP growth rate of 5.7 before the declaration (2010–2015) and a growth rate of 4.2 after the declaration did not show significant impact of the declaration on economic growth, although several underlying factors exist (Nwafor et al., 2020). In the same period Nigeria clearly remained the biggest spender in total expenditure terms but was still among the countries with decreased expenditure on agriculture with a marked dip between 2015 and 2018, along with Gambia and Ghana.

Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria recorded the largest per capita expenditure decreases in agriculture. The biggest increases were Liberia, Gambia and Benin. This is despite the fact that the real volume of Nigerian expenditure was three times the size of the country next to it (Senegal). The country’s low per capita expenditure is largely due to its massive population but a decrease in general volume has also occurred. The effect of Nigeria’s rise or fall in GDP affects the regions GDP as well because Nigeria holds a third of the region’s GDP (Nwafor et al., 2020).

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which came into existence on the 1st of January, 2021 is a major trend that will change the shape of trade in the whole of Africa. This trend seeks to improve the intra-African trade profile of just 2%. But the real consequences of COVID-19 on food supply chains and trade have made the region come to the realization of the need for regional self-sufficiency in food. A World Bank report predicted a decline in economic growth in West Africa between -2.1 and -5.1 in 2020, and true to this prediction a decline of -3.3 occurred (Zeng, 2020). Other new trends include the renewed desire of West African countries for manufacturing independence. Most of it was revived by the pandemic. This will see redirection of imports and ensure that a viable indigenous economy is developed for most West African nations.

Consumer expenditure was $1.4 trillion in 2015 and is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2025, and $2.5 trillion by 2030, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.9% (Signé and Johnson, 2018). This means that there is a consistent and significant increase in consumer expenditure among Africans. It is not different for the overall West African states. An extrapolated USD 190 billion has been spent by West African countries on imports between 2010 and 2020. The major importing countries in West Africa are Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, The Gambia and Senegal (USDA, 2019) Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde and Sierra Leone are at the bottom of imports.

New policy trends have characterized the African agriculture space over the last decade further intensified by the realities that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. Trends such as AfCFTA and the Malabo declaration along with other country-specific indigenisation policies will attempt to create a balance between imports and exports as well as ensuring that more trade traffic is achieved within the region. The region already has sufficiency in coarse grains as a composite food group – the region already produces 44 million metric tonnes while the population requirement is 36.8 million metric tonnes. This figure cuts across the periods of 2016/17 to 2021/22. However, self-sufficiency in rice production is yet to be achieved and self-sufficiency in wheat is abysmal, the region produces less than 1% of the population requirement (FEWS NET, 2021).

Turning point in West Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic is a big turning point in West Africa. The bye-product of lessons from the pandemic is digital farming. Never has the region realized the need for digital farming more than now. Strong indigenisation policies within the sector will lead to lead to increased intra-regional trade and may cause self-sufficiency in the process.

The pandemic, again, has sped up the rate of digital technology adoption in agriculture in West Africa. Nigeria is a powerhouse here, and not just in West Africa but in the whole of Africa. Nigeria can pride itself as home to at least 7 unicorn companies – Opay, Flutterwave, Interswitch and Jumia, Andela, Airtel Africa, and Esusu. In 2021, Nigeria attracted a total of $1.65 billion in seed and series funding of the total $4.65 billion, more than a third (35.48%) of the African total (Oyekanmi, 2022). About 60% of the money attracted by start-ups went to tech start-ups. Even though only 4% went into agriculture, it is clear that digital agriculture will benefit from a charged digital ecosystem in West Africa.

The key turning points is West Africa are the COVID-19 pandemic, incorporation of digital technologies into agriculture and the emergence of region-first collaborative policies that will see the region begin to look inward to solve its problems. The pandemic’s negative impacts have awakened the need for localisation of trade, production and business interactions. Also, ubiquity of digital technologies in the system will occasion a more technological outlook to agriculture for the region. Different policies within the ECOWAS, and all of Africa, will strengthen both intra-regional trade and the financing of agricultural production at individual state levels. West African states have also witnessed the development of regional and national policies for the growth of agriculture in the region. A possible change of Nigeria’s economic policies may see the West African giant’s economic woes altered by the change of government of 2023.

The future of West African Agriculture

Aggregation of resources will be observed in the region. This will help solve sociocultural hindrances in the region. Incorporation of digital agriculture will be predominant in the region as well.  A deviation from a subsistence-based to commercial-based agriculture will be observed, so will industrialisation and better processing. Major constraints in the future of West African agriculture include climate change, poor funding, infrastructural deficits, policy confusions and lack of inclusion of digital technology in existing agricultural policies.

The future of agriculture in West Africa will be characterised by the aggregation of resources such as land and the intensification of high energy inputs and better technology. The region will witness greater inclusion of more advance agricultural techniques and technologies. This should lead to per capita yield increases and better levels of resource use optimisation. The development of technology-based agriculture will become more predominant in the West African space.

Clear targets of increased crop and livestock production and efforts to achieve these targets will be seen in the near future. This will be achieved through the incorporation of technology and the employment of the region’s vast youth population. Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest area of uncultivated arable land in all the world and has the most youthful population in the world, the goal of the West African region is doubling or even tripling its agricultural productivity by maximising the potentials of its vast youth population; such increased productivity will extricate 400 million people from extreme poverty and improve the livelihood of 250 million smallholder farmers and pastoralists in the region (FAO and ITU, 2022). Access to land and key resources by young people for farming in West Africa will essentially engender an agricultural revolutionization that will lead to geometric increases in productivity.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture must move from a subsistence-based agriculture to a more commercially inclined agriculture if it must meet the needs of fast-growing population. The region has already witnessed the emergence of several agriculture-based tech start-ups and will continue to see more. There will be greater incentive for the improved productivity once the region institutes a region-first policy for agriculture products marketing. Policy will be a game changer in West Africa’s agricultural future more than anything. The ability of the region to research on its strengths and strengthen its weaknesses will be a huge game changer since the region has great self-sufficiency as a composite entity than as stand-alone entities that it currently operates. The future will see greater collaborations for meeting agricultural needs.

Growth in industrialisation and agri-processing will be encouraged and witnessed by most West African states. Advances in the knowledge of science and technology will birth the development of more sophisticated agricultural value chains that employ specific advance skills that are needed for the production of goods and services that suit more refined consumerist demands and tastes. Manufacturing the more refined products that Africa’s growing middle class will demand will further ensure that importations are minimized and kept within the region.

Funding for these projects will pose a major constraint as West African governments do not seem to take the initiative quickly enough. The growth of agriculture will depend a lot on the changes that governments make in their policies and intervention programmes. For instance, digital agriculture is scarcely included or aligned with in the existing agricultural policy plans for West African nations but the development of digital agriculture and the fact that the population of the region is highly youthful make digitalization the most important policy direction of the region; the growth of agriculture in the near future should not focus merely on the improvement of productivity through digital technology alternatives but digitalization should encompass the entire value chain of agriculture in the region (FAO and UTI, 2022).

Some other constraints to digitalization of agriculture in West Africa include providing the needed business environment for the growth of digitalization. This involves policies and frameworks that enable the growth of digital agriculture in the region. Improvement in broadband penetration and mobile internet access are important to digital agriculture development in the region. Trade hindrances also need to be removed to make the region’s intraregional trade a reality, the region suffers from conflicting trade policies, extraneous regulation that does not favour agricultural growth, inadequate investment in research and development, dilapidated road networks and poor transportation system as well as an absence of agribusiness with subsistence in its stead, hamper the development of product and marketing networks in the region and should be addressed.

Climate change will feature in no mean way in the future of agriculture in West Africa. Climate change is expected to cause a decrease in crop yield by 0–2% per decade in sub-Saharan Africa. West Africa has at least 19 climate change policies in 12 countries, Guinea lacks a climate change policy document while Senegal, Sierra Leone and Cape Verde do not have these documents in the public domain (Sorgho et al., 2020). The ability of the region to mitigate or even adapt to the effects of climate change will contribute to the improvement of its productivity in the future.

Case study

Cote D’Ivoire presents a special situation as it is dependent on its agricultural exports (up to 40%) and has a stable economy supported by stable food prices, low inflation rate and modest fuel price increase.

In all of this, the productivity prowess of Cote d’Ivoire in cocoa production is as extraordinary as it is exemplary. Cocoa makes up 40% of the country’s export and 38.2% of the world’s cocoa production. The characterisation of Ivory Coast’s export potential by agricultural products instead of natural resources, as is the case for most countries in West Africa, is exceptional. Although the monolithic dependence on Cocoa portends serious danger as a tiny fluctuation in global prices could mean that the livelihoods of millions of cocoa farmers in Cote d’Ivoire and a general dip in the economy of the country. The economy of Cote d’Ivoire is very stable and about the best in the continent showing that there is a perfect balance between its economic resources and the economic policies of the country. Inflation is expected to be pegged at 0.3% standing on the foundation of stable food prices, moderate fuel prices, and lower cost of telecommunications. There is a balance Cote d’Ivoire has been able to strike with its main export, its economic policies and its fiscal regime (https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/cotedivoire/publication/cote-divoire-economic-outlook-why-the-time-has-come-to-produce-cocoa-in-a-responsible-manner).

REFERENCES

FAO and ITU. (2022). Status of digital agriculture in 47 sub-Saharan African countries. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7943en

FAO. (2022). Crop Prospects and Food Situation – Quarterly Global Report No. 1, March 2022. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb8893en accessed July 22, 2022.

FAOSTAT (2020). https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL accessed July 18, 2022

FEWS NET (2021). WEST AFRICA: Regional Supply and Market Outlook. https://reliefweb.int/attachments/7bf3927a-6fed-3fb3-9dbd-6cb94fd43758/RSMO_WA_20211221.pdf accessed July 22, 2022.

Oyekanmi, S. (2022). Nigerian start-ups raise over $1.6 billion fundings in 2021. https://nairametrics.com/2022/02/07/nigerian-startups-raise-over-1-2-billion-fundings-in-2021/

Signé, L. and Johnson, C. (2018). Africa’s consumer market potential: Trends, drivers, opportunities, and strategies.

Sorgho, R., Quiñonez, C. A. M., Louis, V. R., Winkler, V,
Dambach, P., Sauerborn, R. and Horstick, O. (2020). Climate Change Policies in 16 West African Countries: A Systematic Review of Adaptation with a Focus on Agriculture, Food Security, and Nutrition. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17: 8897.

USDA (2019). West Africa: Prospects for U.S. Exporters. https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/west-africa-prospects-us-exporters

Zeng, D. Z. (2020). How will COVID-19 impact Africa’s trade and market opportunities? https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/how-will-covid-19-impact-africas-trade-and-market-opportunities

 

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