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WTO slashes 2023 global trade forecast as recession looms

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The World Trade Organization on Wednesday dramatically lowered its global trade forecast for 2023, as Russia’s war in Ukraine and other shocks take their toll on the world economy.

“Today the global economy faces multi-prong crises. Monetary tightening is weighing on growth across much of the world,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva.

Presenting a revision of their annual trade forecast, WTO economists said they still anticipate global economic growth to rise by 2.8 percent this year, in line with their expectations in April.

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But they said that for 2023, GDP growth is now expected to be just 2.3 percent, down from the previous forecast of 3.2 percent.

By way of comparison, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which has maintained its 2022 forecast at three percent, expects 2.2 percent growth next year.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth at 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2023.

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As for global merchandise trade, WTO economists said they now expect its volume to grow 3.5 percent this year, which is slightly higher than previously expected.

They then expect the volume to grow by only one percent in 2023 — dramatically down from the 3.4 percent forecast in April.

“The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

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READ ALSO: IMF Raises Nigeria’s Economic Growth Projection to 3.4%

 

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The WTO said surging energy prices in Europe, stemming from the war in Ukraine, were expected to squeeze household spending and raise manufacturing costs on the continent.

Meanwhile monetary policy tightening in the United States was hitting the housing, motor vehicle and fixed investment sectors, and China was still grappling with Covid-19 outbreaks and production disruptions.

Furthermore, the growing import bills for fuel, food and fertiliser risked leading to more food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries, the WTO said.

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If its forecasts pan out, world trade will slow considerably next year, but will still continue to grow.

The global trade body stressed the vast uncertainty surrounding the forecasts, due to “shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and the unpredictable nature of the Russia-Ukraine war.”

If the situation deteriorates, the WTO warned that trade growth next year could be as low as minus 2.8 percent, but it emphasised that if things shift in a more positive direction, it could be as high as 4.6 percent.

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Last week, Okonjo-Iweala warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, food price and energy shocks plus the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic were creating the conditions for a world recession.

“Now we have to weather what looks like an oncoming recession,” she told the opening of the WTO’s annual public forum in Geneva.

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Agriculture

Fintiri Unleashes N2bn Boost for Farmers as Adamawa Rolls Out 2025 Agricultural Support Programme

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Gov. Ahmadu Fintiri

The Adamawa State Government has launched the 2025 Agricultural Support Programme aimed at empowering smallholder farmers and enhancing food security across the state.

Commissioner for Agriculture, Prof. David Jatau, disclosed this on Friday while briefing journalists in Yola. He revealed that Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri had approved a substantial N2 billion for the initiative, which targets increased agricultural productivity in the upcoming farming season.

According to Jatau, the programme—which is already underway—will provide subsidised agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, improved seeds, and other essential materials to farmers in six local government areas.

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“The programme has already commenced in six LGAs—Madagali, Michika, Hong, Maiha, Demsa, and Ganye,” he said. “By next year, during the rainy season, we will extend the programme to the remaining LGAs.”

He explained that 300 hectares of farmland would be cultivated in each of the participating local governments, with 300 farmers benefitting per council.

To ensure fairness and transparency, Jatau said a multi-stakeholder committee had been constituted to oversee the beneficiary selection process. The committee comprises representatives of traditional councils, local government authorities, security agencies, youth groups, and women organisations.

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“We are also equipping extension workers with training to offer farmers guidance on modern agricultural techniques for improved yield,” he added.

The commissioner noted that the intervention would not only increase food production but also generate employment, improve rural incomes, and contribute to economic stability in farming communities.

Jatau also revealed that the state government is collaborating with non-governmental organisations and agricultural development bodies, with over 2,700 hectares of farmland pledged by development partners for cultivation.

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He reaffirmed the Fintiri administration’s commitment to achieving food self-sufficiency and urged beneficiaries to make the most of the programme.

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Agriculture

KWASU Microfinance Bank disburses loan to farmers

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KWASU Microfinance Bank disburses loan to farmers

The Kwara State University (KWASU) Microfinance Bank has provided loan facilities to farmer groups in and around Malete, Moro Local Government Area.

The Vice-Chancellor and Chairman of the Board of Trustees, KWASU Microfinance Bank, Prof. Jimoh Shaykh-Luqman, announced this while presenting offer letters to the farmers’ associations at a formal event held on the university campus.

Addressing the farmers, the Vice-Chancellor, represented by the Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Administration), Prof. Moshood Jimba, said the agricultural loan scheme aimed to support farmers in boosting food production and enhancing food sustainability.

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“The loan is meant to support your farm operations, especially in the upcoming planting season,” he said.

Prof. Shaykh-Luqman reaffirmed KWASU’s commitment to its mantra of being a “University for Community Development,” leveraging its expertise and resources to initiate programmes that drive local development.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of KWASU Microfinance Bank, Alhaji Hakeem Hassan, noted that the agricultural loan scheme was piloted last year with 15 farmers as beneficiaries.

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He added that the pilot scheme yielded positive results for both the farmers and the bank, as all beneficiaries successfully repaid their loans.

Following this success, he said, the scheme had been expanded to include more farmers under various farmers’ associations.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the associations benefiting from the agricultural loan scheme include Alanu Agbelere Farmers Group, Agbedola Ketere Group, and Itesiwaju Agbe Group Omoni.

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Others are Agbeloba Farmers Association (Malete Market), Agbeyewa Elemere Farmers Group, Agbe Olofeere Group, and Agbeloga Malete Farmers Group.

Speaking on behalf of the farmers, the Chairman of Agbeloba Farmers Association (Malete Market), Alhaji Mohammed Abdulrazaq, expressed gratitude to the university and the bank for their trust.

He pledged, on behalf of the beneficiaries, to utilise the loans effectively and ensure prompt repayment.

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Agriculture

Kano Govt. implements N2.3bn livestock empowerment programme

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Gov Yusuf directs aides to declare their assets

The Kano State Government has begun implementing the second phase of its livestock empowerment programme valued at N2.3bn under the Kano State Agro-Pastoral Development Project (KSADP).

The Commissioner for Agriculture and Natural Resources, Dr Mamood Danjuma, disclosed this while addressing newsmen on Thursday in Kano.

Danjuma said the initiative aims to support beneficiaries with livestock, feeds, drugs, and salt lick to enhance their economic well-being.

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According to him, 911 beneficiaries are being supported with two rams each, feed for three months, drugs and salt lick, while 2,386 women are being supported with two goats and a buck goat in the poorest households in the state.

He explained that the total package under the empowerment programme showed that 1,342 bulls were procured by the government at the cost of N560m, 1,822 rams were procured at the cost of N175m  and 7,158 goats bought at the cost of N451m.

“Under the cattle scheme, each cattle gains 100kg over a period of 120 days. The fattening period is for 120 days, making three cycles possible in a year.

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“As for the small ruminants fattening scheme, with the same 120-day fattening period yielding an extra 15kg/animal.

“The project promotes goats’ reproduction through women who will take care of the animals and sell the young ones to improve their income and standard of living,” he said.

He said that the programme promotes economic empowerment, particularly among women, by providing them with livestock to care for and sell, ultimately improving their income and standard of living.

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